While providing vital relief to drivers, this order was expected to cause higher grocery prices, with firms passing costs on to consumers at an average of $20 per week or around $80 per month and potentially driving up inflation.
The following day, prices increased $1 per kilo for, for instance, Williams pears although in season and already in stores and abundant, went from $3.50 to $4.50, while milk increased 50 cents per litre for a supermarket brand 3 litre pack.
The Coles Group serves approximately 17 to 18 million customers per week through its extensive network of supermarkets, liquor stores, and online platforms. This equates to roughly 67% of the Australian population, with the retailer operating over 1,800 outlets and managing over 20 million transactions when including all business units.
The Woolworths Group serves over 24 million customers per week across its stores and online platforms. This includes millions of in-store visits and over 16 million weekly digital visits to their app and website. Woolworths holds roughly 32.5% to 38% of national grocery sales, according to 2023-2025 reports.
Either way, if there are 42+million shops x a $20 per week average increase equates to $840,000,000.00 extra per week.
Should the measure be required to persist, or say one whole month of 4 weeks, that's $3.36 billion.
Those 3+ billions, already being diverted from consumers pockets, via the increased costs levied by supermarkets, manufacturers, and logistics companies, are meant to help ensure those who have seen their costs rise by between $2,500.00 to $5,000.00 per week are not sent broke and can continue to 'deliver'.
Does it all add up?
As of March 27 2026 Australia has 1.072 billion litres (24 days) of petrol and 1.596 billion litres (17 days) of diesel remaining in reserve.
This calculation does not take into account shipments of fuel currently in ports and en route to Australia, or the relaxing of sulphur content laws, both of which will extend supply.
On March 13 2026 the ACC released analysis of the pricing data that showed that following the start of the current conflict in the Middle East, daily average retail petrol prices moved higher in line with higher wholesale prices on almost the same day, rather than showing a lagged response of around 7 or more days, which is more typical when wholesale prices change.
Retail petrol prices generally lag behind changes in wholesale prices, as changes in prices generally only flow through when fuel is replenished at a petrol station.
“In this case it looks like petrol retailers increased prices at the pump when they were selling fuel they had bought before the conflict at cheaper prices.” ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey said.
“Retailers must explain to the Australian public why they did not follow their usual practice, and when they will reduce prices in line with any reductions in wholesale costs.”
In addition, the graphics show the impact of the long-running petrol price cycles which operate in the five largest cities. The petrol price cycles differ in timing and length between the cities, with the Sydney increase shown in price graph shown below.
More information on petrol price cycles is available on the ACCC website.
Chart 1 – Sydney daily average retail regular petrol prices, and average terminal gate prices (lagged 7 days):
Source: ACCC calculations based on data from Informed Sources and data published on the Australian Institute of Petroleum website.
In 2021 a full cargo of fuel on a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) was worth approximately $120 million to $140 million USD, based on a capacity of roughly 2 million barrels. For refined fuel specifically (petrol/diesel), a large tanker shipment can be worth upwards of $200-$300 million USD. A typical VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) holds around 2 million barrels (84 million gallons or ~318 million litres). Hiring a tanker to move this cargo ranged from $90,000 to over $200,000 per day.
As of early 2026, a fully loaded Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) containing around 2 million barrels of oil is valued at approximately $150 million to over $200 million USD per cargo, driven by volatile market conditions. The total cost fluctuates rapidly based on oil prices and geopolitical events, specifically the 2026 Middle East Iran-America-Israel conflict, that has seen Brent crude prices surpass $100 per barrel, sometimes approaching $126 per barrel.
The NRMA states Australia consumes roughly 90 to 92 million litres of diesel per day, which equates to approximately 630 to 644 million litres per week. This high consumption makes Australia one of the most diesel-dependent nations per person, with demand heavily driven by freight transport.
Key Transport Industry Metrics in Australia include:
- Total Businesses: Estimates vary, but as of 2024, there were over 62,000 road freight transport businesses, while other sources list roughly 41,000–42,000 core trucking companies.
- 70% of operators are small owner-drivers (1-4 personnel).
- Large operators like Linfox, Toll Group, and Centurion lead the market in fleet size, particularly in commercial vehicles and prime movers.
- The trucking industry employs close to 260,000 people.
- The sector is experiencing high pressure, with an 8.46% business closure rate in the 12 months to November 2025, according to recent data and industry members.
The industry is crucial to the Australian economy, contributing to a $164 billion total transport contribution (including in-house operations) as of 2020-21, in the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Other factors which impact fuel costs, according to the NRMA, are Fuel transport costs, the Australian government imposes a fixed excise on petrol and diesel, which is indexed twice a year to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), in December 2025 the excise rate was approximately 52 cents per litre.
On March 30 2026, following a meeting of the National Cabinet convened by the Prime Minister, the Australian Government announced it will halve the fuel excise on petrol and diesel for three months. The halving of the fuel excise reduced the cost of fuel by 26.3 cents per litre.
On April 2 2026 the ACCC, in warning fuel retailers they should fully pass on all fuel excise cuts as quickly as possible, reminded consumers that under a deal between States and Territories and the Federal Government, fuel excise would reduce by about 5.7 cents per litre (cpl), in addition to the cut in fuel excise of 26.3 cpl, which came into effect on 1 April. The ACCC is continuing to monitor fuel prices daily in capital cities and more than 190 regional locations and will closely analyse price movements following the government’s cut in the fuel excise from 1 April 2026, and the subsequent cut.
In addition to the fuel excise, now cut at federal, state and territory levels, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) is applied at a rate of 10 per cent on the final retail price of petrol. This means that GST is calculated not only on the base price of the fuel but also on the excise component, effectively taxing the tax.
The retail markup, a further cost, covers the operating costs and profit margins of service stations. This includes expenses such as wages, rent, utilities, and other overheads associated with running a retail fuel outlet. The level of competition in a given area can influence the retail markup, with higher competition often leading to lower margins. Retail prices in capital and larger cities typically follow a discounting cycle set by retailers, influenced by local competition and consumer behaviour.
The ABS also tells us in 2020 data, there are over 625,000 registered trucks in Australia, comprising approximately 521,000 rigid trucks and over 100,000 articulated trucks (semitrailers/heavy vehicles). These vehicles are essential for logistics, with around 189,900 professional truck drivers operating in the industry.
If all 189,900 get the whole extra $5,000.00 per week that = $945,000,000.00, meaning there may still be a significant shortfall between what Australian consumers will pay via price increases and what it may be costing to get fresh fruit, vegetables and milk to you.
Woolworths, which states it buys around 20 per cent of the country’s fresh produce, and 7 per cent of its beef, has increased its payments for Farmers’ Own milk by 10-cents per litre to farmers.
“We know Aussie households are feeling real pressure when it comes to rising costs and fuel prices. We’re committed to doing what we can to buffer customers at the checkout and absorbing some of those extra costs in our supply chains,” a Woolworths spokesperson said.
“We also recognise suppliers, Aussie farmers and transport partners are navigating difficult cost increases like the rise in fuel prices, and we are working to find the right path through.” Woolworths added.
The 3 litre Woolworths Full Cream Milk we bought on April 2 2026 cost $4.65. Today it is $5.15, which, like Coles, is an increase of 50 cents since Monday this week.
On April 16 the ABC reported Woolworths is paying an extra 10 cents a litre to fewer than 20 farmers who it deals directly with for its Farmers' Own brand.
Coles announced a relief package for its farmers on Monday April 20, which included up to $1 million in one-off payments.
In a letter to farmers, a Coles spokesperson announced: “We know rising cost pressures are affecting many Australian farmers and suppliers who are navigating higher input expenses such as fuel, fertiliser, and packaging.
“To help our dairy farmers manage rising costs, we are committing an additional temporary payment of approximately 5 cents per litre to direct-sourcing farmers, on top of our advertised, competitive farmgate price.”
Coles added that its own $1 million in relief for direct-sourcing farmers will be delivered by one-off payments.
“We’re proud to support Australian farmers by investing in the long-term sustainability of the industry,” Coles said.
Norco, Australia’s oldest and last completely farmer-owned dairy cooperative, also announced a five-cent per litre increase to its farmgate milk price from May 2026, which it states will deliver an additional $1 million per month to farmers.
Fair Work Commission Relief for Transporters
The Fair Work Commission, in making its first road transport contractual chain order following legislative amendments from the Albanese Government, is trying to ensure truckies can continue to deliver.
The FWC’s decision follows Labor’s Fairer Fuel amendments that created a new pathway for truckies and transport operators to seek urgent contract chain orders.
The amendments were designed to help truck drivers receive a fair go when the Middle East conflict causes fuel prices to spike.
The FWC’s decision means from Tuesday 21 April, parties across road transport contractual chains will be required to update the rates they pay for road transport services every fortnight to reflect changes in fuel prices.
This includes supermarkets, retailers, manufacturers and other businesses that contract road transport services, as well as transport and logistics companies along the chain.
The order is flexible and recognises that different arrangements already exist across the industry, giving parties flexibility in how they meet the requirements.
Existing arrangements used to manage fuel price changes can satisfy the requirements of the order.
To ensure the order only applies while fuel prices remain unusually high, the commission has included safeguards.
These safeguards mean the requirements will stop once average diesel prices fall below $2 per litre, and the Commission will review the order after its first month of operation and then every three months to ensure it remains appropriate.
In response to stakeholder feedback, the obligation in the order to undertake rate reviews does not apply to the cash in transit industry, or to small businesses that require the delivery of freight by road.
The Hon. Amanda Rishworth, Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations, stated in a Monday April 20 2026 press release:
“This order is about fairness. Truck drivers should not be left carrying the cost of global fuel shocks that are completely outside their control.
“By requiring fuel price changes to be reflected in transport rates, this order helps protect hard working truckies and small businesses from being pushed to the brink.
“This is the first order made under the Albanese Government’s road transport reforms and sits alongside our National Fuel Security Plan to help Australia respond to fuel disruptions and keep goods moving across the country.”
NFF Horticulture Council calls on supermarkets to accept price increases to protect food supply
On April 2 2026 Australia's National Farm Federation Horticulture Council tabled an open letter to Australia’s major supermarket chains urging them to respond promptly and constructively to price increase requests from fresh produce suppliers, as fuel and freight costs continue to escalate.
Fuel prices, fuel levies and transport surcharges are rising rapidly and, in some cases, changing daily. For a sector that relies heavily on refrigerated, long‑distance freight, these increases are placing immediate pressure on growers and suppliers across Australia.
The Council said timely acceptance of cost‑reflective price adjustments was essential not only to maintain current supply, but to send the confidence signals required for growers to continue investing in future production.
“Supermarkets are critical partners in the fresh produce supply chain. How they respond to these cost pressures now will directly influence whether growers have the confidence to keep planting, investing and producing for the future,” said Chair of the Council, Mr Jolyon Burnett.
Queensland Fruit & Vegetable Growers CEO Scott Kompo-Harms said fuel surcharges applied by freight companies had risen rapidly, with those further away from capital city markets most heavily impacted.
“We’re hearing fuel surcharges of up to 65 percent of the value of the consignment being applied on top existing freight costs for growers in Far North Queensland. This increase blows out of the water the already thin margins for fresh produce growers,” Mr Kompo-Harms said.
The Council noted that ongoing uncertainty around cost recovery is already influencing decision‑making at farm level, with some growers delaying or scaling back production in response to rising input costs and weak price signals.
Peter Spackman, CEO of vegetablesWA, said confidence in not just the fuel price, but the ability in the regions to source enough fuel to sustain elementary production practices had already led to the abandonment of future plantings.
“We are aware growers, with no prospect of being supplied by their regular distributor, are currently running into the outskirts of Perth on a daily basis looking for diesel to run pumps and irrigation among other things. It’s no way to run a business and makes it easy to understand why growers are reconsidering plans for putting more seedlings in the ground,” Mr Spackman said.
Mr Burnett said these pressures come at a time when supermarkets have an important role in helping stabilise the supply chain and preventing future shortages and food price spikes by supporting continued domestic production.
Mr Burnett also highlighted the importance of supermarkets conducting all trading practices, including negotiations over new grocery supply agreements, in good faith. This includes recent concerns raised publicly and through government processes regarding supplier pressure, pricing references below the cost of supply, and the reliability and transparency of volume forecasts provided to growers.
“Good faith dealing means accurate forecasts, fair negotiations and recognising the real costs being borne by suppliers,” Mr Burnett said.
“Where growers have invested on the basis of supermarket forecasts, those volumes should be honoured before alternative sourcing is pursued.”
The Council emphasised the very same fuel challenges were being experienced in the nursery industry and the same request applied to Bunnings and their handling of price increase requests.
Greenlife Industry Australia CEO Sean Cole said growers of ornamental plants were also experiencing rapidly escalating costs of production and transport that were cutting into their own thin margins.
“Greenlife growers of any scale need to deal with Bunnings as the dominant retailer of its products to the public. The extent to which Bunnings supports its suppliers through the current crisis will for many growers determine whether they’re still in business once fuel prices and supply normalise,” Mr Cole said.
The Council emphasised that supermarkets and big box retailers play an indispensable role in Australia’s fresh produce and nursery industries and that strong, transparent supplier relationships are fundamental to ensuring affordable, reliable access to fresh food and plants for Australian consumers.
“We all share an interest in a resilient horticulture sector,” Mr Burnett said.
“Supporting growers through periods of acute cost pressure is not only fair, but also essential to safeguarding the nation’s food security.”
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