Community Independent MPs Zali Steggall in Warringah and Dr. Sophie Scamps in Mackellar have been returned to federal parliament in yesterday's election. Figures released by the Australian Electoral Commission at 10pm, show Dr Scamps had attracted a swing, on a two party preferred basis, of 4.71% after 75% of votes were counted in her battle against Liberal James Brown. Ms Steggall will be returned to parliament for a third term, attracting more than 40% of the first preference votes against Liberal candidate Jaimee Rogers.
Independent candidate for Bradfield Nicolette Boele said earlier on Saturday she was feeling "really positive" .
Ms Boele said she believes the result in the seat this election will be "really close". This is the second time she has contested the seat.
After a 12.3 per cent swing her way in 2022, the seat went from a very safe Liberal seat to a 4.2 per cent tight contest. However, even with 98.65% of the votes counted showing Ms Boele leading 51.4% to 48.6%, the contest for Bradfield is still too close to call.
The AEC’s data to midnight shows the ALP will have a majority and 80 seats, the Liberal/National Coalition 37 and Independents 11, although the ABC has Labor on 85 seats and the Coalition on 41. Either way this is a historic landslide win for the Australian Labor Party.
In his speech to supporters after Mr. Dutton conceded, Prime Minister Albanese said
"We take on this task with new hope, new confidence and new determination,"
"Our government will choose the Australian way, because we are proud of who we are and all that we have built together in this country," Albanese told supporters.
"We do not need to beg or borrow or copy from anywhere else. We do not seek our inspiration from overseas. We find it right here in our values and in our people," he added.
Mr. Albanese addressed Labor supporters at the Canterbury-Hurlstone Park RSL club in Sydney on Saturday night, calling for national unity before pledging not to take votes for granted and to dedicate his next term to “making a positive difference in your lives”.
Mr. Albanese said the result showed Australians had chosen “optimism and determination”.
“At election time candidates and parties are asked to make a choice. The nature of our democracy and the role of the media who serve it, it is based on differences,” Albanese said.
“But the people of Australia have made the clear choice. Let us reflect on what we have in common, because no matter who you voted for, no matter where you live, no matter how you worship or who you love, whether you belong to a culture that has known and cared for this great continent for 65,000 years or you have chosen our nation as your home and enriched our society with your contribution, we are all Australians.
“So let all of us work together to build our national unity on the enduring foundations of fairness, equality and respect for one another.
My fellow Australians, I know the world has thrown a lot at our country over the past three years. I know so many of you have worked hard in the face of significant challenges, and I know there is still much more to do to help people under pressure. That is why it means so much that in these uncertain times, the people of Australia have placed their trust in Labor once again. Including so many Australians who had voted Labor for the first time.”
Coalition leader Peter Dutton has lost his seat in Dickson to Labor’s Ali France in her third bid to represent the community. The former journalist and para-athlete lost her eldest son Henry to leukaemia last year, and the father of her children, Clive France, lost his battle with cancer in September 2023.
During his concession speech on Saturday night, Mr Dutton congratulated Ms France and apologised for the overall result.
"We didn't do well enough in this campaign, that much is obvious," Mr Dutton said.
"There are good members and candidates who have lost their seats … and I am sorry for that."
Mackellar Data: 2025
The data from the 2025 federal election started coming in soon after the close of polls, 6pm, Saturday May 3.
Before election day a lot of voters had already cast their poll. The AEC says more than 6.77 million people had cast a pre-poll vote, another 1.64 million completed postal votes and 155,000 people who voted with a mobile team.
This would indicate a lot of us had already made up our minds before some of the political parties had made their policy and costings for the same announcements.
Mackellar suburbs include Dee Why, Collaroy, Narrabeen, Mona Vale, Avalon and Frenchs Forest. During the 2024 Redistribution Mackellar expanded south, taking in Forestville, Killarney Heights and North Curl Curl from Warringah. Adding in the vote for Zali Steggall in these areas, it improved the independent margin from 2.5% to 3.3%.
Mackellar had 111,170 registered voters for the 2022 election, this was increased to 129,396 after the 2024 redistribution and elimination of the North Sydney seat.
The AEC's data for Mackellar shows the Narrabeen pre-poll booth was the most used, totalling 14,089 votes prior to Saturday. The Pittwater pre-poll booth at Avalon Recreation Centre had 9,690 cast there, and a further 6,926 cast at the Frenchs Forest pre-poll voting centre. The Brookvale pre-poll booth also attracted a large number of Mackellar pre-poll votes, with 10,177 cast there.
The following was collected as the results came in, beginning with first preferences - and from the AEC Mackellar webpage:
7.30pm: 57.2% for Dr. Scamps
7.40: 58.53% for Dr. Scamps
7.50: 59.74% for Dr. Scamps
8.25: 58.1% for Dr. Scamps - Mr. Brown: 41.86%
8.59: 57.2% for Dr. Scamps to 42.775
At 9pm the pre-poll votes began to be counted.
9:26pm:
Projected two candidate preferred (TCP) for Mackellar (NSW)30 of 50 polling places returned and 70.49% of the ballot papers counted thus far have also had a TCP count undertaken.
Candidate Party Votes Margin Projected TCP (%) Previous election (%) Current Swing (%) Actual TCP (%) Status
BROWN, James Liberal 42.94 48.23 -5.29 42.33
SCAMPS, Sophie Independent 57.06 51.77 +5.29 57.67
9.38: 56.88% to 43.12%
10.10: 56.48% to 43.52%
10.13:
Projected two candidate preferred (TCP) for Mackellar (NSW)40 of 50 polling places returned and 66.15% of the ballot papers counted thus far have also had a TCP count undertaken.
Candidate Party Votes Margin Projected TCP (%) Previous election (%) Current Swing (%) Actual TCP (%) Status
BROWN, James Liberal 43.52 48.23 -4.71 42.94
SCAMPS, Sophie Independent 56.48 51.77 +4.71 57.06
10.14: (from ABC) First preference
Independent Sophie Scamps(MP) Vote:39.1% 31,404 Swing:+0.6%
Liberal Party James Brown Vote:34.3% 27,569 Swing:-6.2%
Labor Party Jeffrey Quinn Vote:12.0% 9,690 Swing:+3.7%
Greens Ethan Hrnjak Vote:6.2% 4,961 Swing:-0.2%
Informal Votes 6.8% at 5,861
Total Votes 86,246
2.5% swing to IND - IND to retain
10.32 pm:
Projected two candidate preferred (TCP) for Mackellar (NSW)44 of 50 polling places returned and 77.94% of the ballot papers counted thus far have also had a TCP count undertaken.
Candidate Party Votes Margin Projected TCP (%) Previous election (%) Current Swing (%) Actual TCP (%) Status
BROWN, James Liberal 43.80 48.23 -4.43 43.52
SCAMPS, Sophie Independent 56.20 51.77 +4.43 56.48
11.10pm:
Returned with a greater margin MP for Mackellar, Dr. Sophie Scamps posts on Instagram and FB: ‘WE DID IT MACKELLAR’ with a photo montage of volunteers and events that have occurred during the election campaign.
An hour after this, as the results became undeniable, this was followed by:
''Thank you, thank you, thank you Mackellar!''
Mackellar MP Dr. Sophie Scamps and volunteer supporters/events during her 2025 campaign
12.20 am:
Projected two candidate preferred (TCP) for Mackellar (NSW) 50 of 50 polling places returned and 100.00% of the ballot papers counted thus far have also had a TCP count undertaken.
Candidate Party Votes Margin Projected TCP (%) Previous election (%) Current Swing (%) Actual TCP (%) Status
BROWN, James Liberal - - 44.37 48.23 -3.86 44.23
SCAMPS, Sophie Independent - - 55.63 51.77 +3.86 55.77
First preference count for the division of Mackellar
COTTON, Lisa Independent 1,933 1.97 +1.97
HAYMAN, Brad Pauline Hanson's One Nation 2,389 2.43 -0.17
HRNJAK, Ethan The Greens 5,699 5.80 -0.23
ADDISON, Justin Libertarian 1,724 1.75 +1.75
ROBERTSON, Amber Trumpet of Patriots 1,326 1.35 +1.35
BROWN, James Liberal 35,036 35.66 -4.58
SINGH, Mandeep Independent 583 0.59 +0.59
SCAMPS, Sophie Independent 38,053 38.73 +3.47 Previous Member
QUINN, Jeffrey Labor 11,512 11.72 +3.77
Formal 98,255 93.44 -2.68
Informal 6,899 6.56 +2.68
Total 105,154
Worth noting is the difference in the postal votes between the two leading candidates. Here Mr. Brown secured 1,827 or 47.80% of the votes and Dr. Scamps 1,152 or 30.14%.
The AEC's Mackellar data is available at: tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-31496-132.htm
Dr. Sophie Scamps, returned MP for Mackellar, stated via Instagram on Sunday:
''There is no community independent without community - thank you to every single volunteer and of course our dedicated team. You all worked so incredibly hard. You amaze me.
Thank you and huge kudos to all the candidates - competition strengthens our democracy.
Our community deserves to be heard and have someone who will always stand up for our views, values and priorities. I will continue do that to the best of my ability.''
Georgia Steele, Chief Policy Adviser for Dr Sophie Scamps MP, Dr. Sophie Scamps, and Pittwater MP Jacqui Scruby (right) at volunteers event on Saturday evening. Photo: Instagram/Dr. Scamps
Warringah
Zali Steggall - Independent - and from the AEC Warringah webpage:
7.30: 63.2%
7.58: 60.82%
8.26: 63.65% - Jaimee Rogers R: 36.35%
9.00: 63.83% to 36.17%
9.35: 63.52% to 36.48%
10.10: 63.38% to 36.62%
10.33:
Projected two candidate preferred (TCP) for Warringah (NSW)45 of 57 polling places returned and 63.64% of the ballot papers counted thus far have also had a TCP count undertaken.
Candidate Party Votes Margin Projected TCP (%) Previous election (%) Current Swing (%) Actual TCP (%) Status
STEGGALL, Zali Independent - - 63.21 60.53 +2.68 63.56
ROGERS, Jaimee Liberal - - 36.79 39.47 -2.68 36.44
11.30:
Projected two candidate preferred (TCP) for Warringah (NSW)49 of 57 polling places returned and 73.43% of the ballot papers counted thus far have also had a TCP count undertaken.
Candidate Party Votes Margin Projected TCP (%) Previous election (%) Current Swing (%) Actual TCP (%) Status
STEGGALL, Zali Independent - - 63.12 60.53 +2.59 63.35
ROGERS, Jaimee Liberal - - 36.88 39.47 -2.59 36.65
The AEC's Warringah data is available at: tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-31496-151.htm
Ms Steggall's acceptance speech:
Bradfield (includes part of former North Sydney)
Nicolette Boele – Independent and from the AEC's Bradfield webpage
Bradfield was created in the 1949 expansion of Parliament, and was named in honour of John Bradfield, the designer and builder of the Sydney Harbour Bridge. Its first member was Billy Hughes, a former Prime Minister of Australia and the last serving member of the first federal Parliament. The bulk of the seat was carved out of North Sydney, which Hughes represented from 1923 to 1949. After Hughes, its best-known member was Brendan Nelson, a minister in the third and fourth Howard governments and the federal Leader of the Opposition from 2007 to 2008. Pau Fletcher became a Liberal MP for Bradfield in 2009 and held the sat until announcing his departure from politics on December 10 2024. Gisele Kapterian became he Liberal candidate. The seat has been held by the Liberal party since 1949.
8.25pm: 53.8% to Gisele Kapterian: 46.15%
9.01pm: 53.63% to 46.3%
9.24: 51.95% to 48.05%
10.55:
Projected two candidate preferred (TCP) for Bradfield (NSW)48 of 62 polling places returned and 75.32% of the ballot papers counted thus far have also had a TCP count undertaken.
Candidate Party Votes Margin Projected TCP (%) Previous election (%) Current Swing (%) Actual TCP (%) Status
KAPTERIAN, Gisele Liberal - - 48.70 53.40 -4.70 49.25
BOELE, Nicolette Independent - - 51.30 46.60 +4.70 50.75
10.33:
Projected two candidate preferred (TCP) for Bradfield (NSW)44 of 62 polling places returned and 71.34% of the ballot papers counted thus far have also had a TCP count undertaken.
Candidate Party Votes Margin Projected TCP (%) Previous election (%) Current Swing (%) Actual TCP (%) Status
KAPTERIAN, Gisele Liberal - - 48.62 53.40 -4.78 49.42
BOELE, Nicolette Independent - - 51.38 46.60 +4.78 50.58
11.23:
Projected two candidate preferred (TCP) for Bradfield (NSW)55 of 62 polling places returned and 85.48% of the ballot papers counted thus far have also had a TCP count undertaken.
Candidate Party Votes Margin Projected TCP (%) Previous election (%) Current Swing (%) Actual TCP (%) Status
KAPTERIAN, Gisele Liberal - - 48.97 53.40 -4.43 48.82
BOELE, Nicolette Independent - - 51.03 46.60 +4.43 51.18
2.9% swing to IND - IND set to win
Bradfield data at: tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-31496-108.htm
Nicolette Boele, independent candidate for Bradfield, said on Sunday May 4:
“The count in Bradfield is extremely close and we expect it will be several days until the AEC has a final result.
Regardless of the outcome, this community has made it clear that we expect our representative to listen to and respond to the concerns of this community.
The nationwide result shows that Australians overwhelming reject the negative, toxic politics we’ve seen during this campaign.”
Ms Boele and family on Saturday evening at volunteers event. Photo: NB/FB
All House of Representatives and Senate votes cast near a voter’s home division on election day will be counted that night. The majority of pre-poll votes cast for the House of Representatives (again, those cast near a voter’s home division) will also be counted on the night. Approximately 2,000 postal votes will also be counted in most electoral divisions on election night.
House of Representatives votes are counted first. This includes a first preference count followed by a two-candidate preferred (TCP) count.
On election night, the AEC is legally required to conduct an indicative preference count in each House of Representatives contest. After first preference votes are allocated and counted, votes are re-sorted into two piles – these piles are for the candidates deemed by the AEC as most likely to be the final two candidates in the count.
This does not in any way discount preferences for other candidates but rather is just a mechanism to provide as early an indication of a potential result in each seat as possible. · TCP counts, and the process for resetting TCP selections, is explained in more detail on the AEC’s website.
Campaigns
The campaigns conducted over the past few weeks have been interrupted by Easter, the Autumn School Holidays and the Anzac Day long weekend. Nevertheless, one party has found time, money and personnel to run a negative attack on the incumbent MP Dr. Sophie Scamps, even attacking her supporters and volunteers via one Instagram account. Considering how many opine Scamps voters are former voters for this party, this may not have been a vote-winning strategy.
Of the 9 candidates standing to Represent, rather than Rule, Mackellar only 5 made any real discernible effort, with Dr. Scamps clearly making the most effort to speak of what has been achieved through her work during her initial Term and what is planned for a second Term should she succeed in winning the seat again, as confirmed by the AEC.
Liberal candidate James Brown had been door-knocking (west), made money pledge announcements for two surf clubs and a sports club, along with attending Liberal party campaign events in the area, for Liberal party members and supporters.
Dr. Scamps has hosted a variety of events engaging with the community from music for younger voters to surfing with Pittwater champion legends, along with meet and greets in every corner of the electorate.
ALP man Jeffrey Quinn has also been 'out and about', while Greens candidate Ethan Hrnjak made some memorable statements at the community forum held during the school holidays, Wednesday April 23, and hosted by the Pittwater Community Alliance.
The majority of Candidates also took the opportunity to participate in the news services' Profile, always run during elections, to reply to the community's questions.
See: Pittwater Online News Profile: Mackellar 2025 Candidates
Election Pledges
The BIG announced pledge for this election was that of $250 million for the Mona Vale Road West project, made by Dr. Sophie Scamps - and from the ALP - Labor party. The Libs announced they too would match this should they win government.
More on this as we get closer to the NSW State Government beginning its rollout of its 2025-2026 Budget announcements, and the official Budget documents are subsequently released.
Dr. Scamps has also announced, among many other policies that responded directly to community, business, environment and individual concerns, a community-backed move to have Pittwater heritage listed.
See: Dr Scamps’ plan to protect Pittwater: Nomination For Heritage Listing
AEC Confirmation of results: Timeline
Early votes can be cast in larger polling places, meaning they take longer to count and be reported. Those votes, like the votes cast on Saturday, will be counted from 6pm local time.
In many seats, we'll need to wait until figures from the early voting centres are reported in order to be able to say who has won.
In every polling booth, staff from the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) conduct the same process. First, they sort, count and report the first preference votes for each candidate. In some cases, the winner is immediately clear from just those figures, but most of the time, the preference count in the seat plays a deciding factor.
The first indications of results in individual House of Representatives divisions, and who will form government, are always made by electoral analysts and commentators.
Whether or not a clear indication of a result is available on election night depends entirely on how close the margin in particular seats is, and how close the margin is in the number of seats in the House of Representatives.
The AEC never officially declares results of a federal election on election night.
There is unlikely to be significant movement in the tally room figures on the Sunday after election day. This is not because the AEC is not working – rather, it’s a day or sorting and transport to setup for fresh counts.
Votes cast away from a person’s home division need to be transported in order to be entered into the count. In addition, these votes also undergo a process called ‘preliminary scrutiny’ - an enrolment validation – prior to being admitted to the count.
When will official seat declarations occur?
The AEC must count each ballot paper at least twice in a process called ‘fresh scrutiny’ - this occurs in the days after election night in order to double check the numbers.
The AEC cannot declare a House of Representatives seat unless it is mathematically certain. This means that the potential number of votes still to be counted must be smaller than the margin in the seat.
However, the results are definitely in for Mackellar and Warringah - and congratulations go to Dr. Sophie Scamps and Zali Steggall, who may be joined in Canberra by Independent Nicolette Boele.